Broker’s Report, December 3, 2007

Broker’s Report Dec.3––At this point in time Mammoth’s real estate market can only be diagnosed as having some sort of split personality/schizophrenic disorder. But October and November did witness a slight uptick (from almost nothing) in activity and sales, and that wouldn’t be including the closings at the Westin. What is the evidence of all this disorder?

First, the big news-and-noise makers are the Westin Monache project (including a ribbon cutting this last week) and right next door the Staubach/Cypress Equities group announcing a deal signed with Ritz-Carlton. Normally trumpets would blare and the local real estate community would be busy putting transactions on the board. But from what I’m observing, many of the Westin buyers are grudgingly closing (some early closers were offered incentives/credits), some units that close immediately come back on the market in the Mammoth MLS at a price just enough to cover costs, and the developer (Intrawest) is placing units back on the market that appeared to be previously sold. And some of the under-contract buyers are no longer able to qualify for and finalize their loans. The undercurrent is beginning to resemble a riptide.

Meanwhile, Roger Staubach and Cypress Equities appear to be full throttle on developing the Ritz-Carlton Residences on the nearly seven acres right next door to the Westin. They plan to be open in two years. Sounds great to me. The only problem I see is they are forecasting entry-level prices at $2 million. The comparable units at the Westin are sucking wind at $500,000. And comparable units in the Village will sink below $400,000 if it doesn’t snow soon. And this trend isn’t just Mammoth. Check out the Trump-labeled projects in places like Chicago and Baja. Or condo hotel projects in Florida. Am I really missing the pent up demand for an “ultra-luxury and lavish spa” condo hotel project in Mammoth??

The high-end home market has the same split personality. High quality homes are under construction all over Mammoth. Only a couple are being built on speculation. I count ten new high-end homes under construction just in the Bluffs. And check out the monster homes under construction in Juniper Ridge and Grawhawk. These are some seriously expensive homes. And yet there is an inventory of high-end homes for sale––some of them brand new––that have sat on the market for years. (Who is servicing that debt??) My company is marketing a high-end “government surrendered” home in Grayhawk. The attention it is receiving from potential buyers is significant. It’s basically a real nice $4 million dollar fixer-upper. Personally, I like the home right down the street at just a little more, and it is brand new and has much better finish work. But it doesn’t have a bowling alley and an indoor lap pool.

The buyers and sellers continue in a bipolar state. There really are buyers out there, but few have a sense of urgency. Most want to throw out low-ball offers to see who moves and who doesn’t. Some are going to contract with steep discounts. And some are just waiting for quality properties/locations and are willing to pay a little more. (Buying on price in Mammoth doesn’t make sense over buying quality and location––no matter how low the price is, especially in the condo market. That only worked when the game was on tilt.) But the sellers, for the most part, have no sense of urgency either. “Oh let the listing expire, we’ll try next year.” or “We’ll just keep it and give it to the kids.” The other out is foreclosure, and we only have a handful so far.

Developers are sitting on substantial amounts of new-but-unsold inventory all over town. From Snowcreek Lodges to Stonegate to Gateway Village to Tallus to 80/50. So the mindset is to build more. The “Berner parcel” just closed escrow in the Village. This is a smaller parcel on the corner of Forest Trail and the newly aligned Berner Street (the realignment created the new parcel where the “1” was going to be built.) According to the agents involved, the buyer did “considerable due diligence” and is anxious to move forward. (I hope they did the Environmental studies––that used to be part of the old County and Town mechanical yard––back in the days when they use to dispose of stuff like oil and brake fluid right into the ground.) Of course, the village at Whistler was built on the old garbage dump. Maybe we’re on to something.

And now we have local brokers who have little experience, and who have never been through a market cycle, calling the bottom of the market (March 2008?) And east coast and now Texas money poised to make Mammoth an “ultra-luxury” resort. And more long-delayed improvements like the airport and ski-back trail stuck in legally contentious and seemingly nebulous/endless environmental review. (If the Creator had to produce an EIR for the earth would the evolution of man been acceptable to environmentalists?) And based on casual financial information from the past few years––is the Ski Area more profitable in a drought year? (ahhh…the law of diminishing returns.) And more and more folks really questioning the destiny of Mammoth as a resort (ahhh….schizophrenia.) If only it would snow.

But just the other day my confusion cleared while talking to an old friend who was once the editor of the Mammoth Times and also served as a Mono County Supervisor. He departed Mammoth over ten years ago and today he works for the Governator and travels all over the state. He reminded me again why Mammoth is so special. While all the beautiful (and not so beautiful) places in California are overrun with roads and people and strip malls, Mammoth remains a wide open and relatively pristine place, one destined to remain that way because of the very “environment” energies we butt heads with. Throw in all the scenic beauty, the endless recreational opportunities, and the temperate climate, and what else matters? “These east coasters and Texans really do know something,” he said.

And there are some very good things coming to fruition. The late snow has allowed the Lake Mary Road construction improvements to continue and once this is all completed it will be a major change for the better. The sidewalk improvements (including much needed storm drains) to upper Canyon Blvd. look great too. Next year when it runs from Canyon Lodge all the way down to the Village, this will stand as a major upgrade to the “Slopes” neighborhood. It certainly can’t hurt the property values. Similar improvements are slated for Meridian Blvd. in the near future. The new library is just about completed and the new ice rink facility behind it is coming along nicely. Improvements at the airport are slated for this summer, but lets not jinx it.

The site improvements at Snowcreek Phase 8, known as CreekHouse, are impressive too. Now that the initial roads and structures are up, the site that we always believed would be one of the finest in Mammoth is proving to be just that. I think acquiring a unit overlooking the Mammoth Creek drainage will be about as good as it gets in Mammoth––unless you really need to ski to your front door. And with the Snowcreek Athletic Club now heading in a new, very positive direction under new ownership and partnered with the Double Eagle Resort and Spa in June Lake, the CreekHouse location looks even better. Now just get the back nine constructed.

The real estate inventory is stable––but plenty of expired listings and most of the condo inventory was either built or bought in the last three years. Now if it would just snow. Or turn back to summer.

43 thoughts on “Broker’s Report, December 3, 2007”

  1. Ahhh Oster,
    Let me sum up your mindless candy coating for you….
    The market is TANKING.
    It is OVER BUILT, Over Price, and too much ego over the years trying to drive money to a little ghost town with great snow.
    Recent new owners cant carry without snow.
    and to quote you…
    “And now we have local brokers who have little experience, and who have never been through a market cycle”
    This is not a market cycle. This is an unprecedented enormous collapse You will not see a return on any investment in Mammoth until maybe 2015. High end homes in sitting on the market in Mammoth
    will continue to sit…for a long time. Finally it is now proven, that Mammoth Real Estate is a dormant volcano.

    Reply
  2. If you own in Mammoth, and it is your only real estate, and you bought in the last 4 years…..Well, that sucks…You made the error of your life. You aren’t going anywhere for twenty years. And for the next twenty years, places nice than yours, if they sell at all, will sell at less than half of what you paid….Have a good life…

    Reply
  3. Oh my, such energy and…well….down right anger. That’s what I love about real estate…and that is every 3 bdrm/2.5 ba house comes furnished with a large dose of emotion. Thus, the schizophrenia Paul is alluding to now that the market is adjusting back to economic reality (wherever that proves to be). Paul, I’m seeing the same thing where some very high-end product is still moving (mainly coastal)….which I largely attribute to the last vestiges of bravado on the part of the “alpha” dogs that were rewarded handsomely over the past seven years for their “full steam ahead and damn the torpedoes” mentality. We need those guys because they create the jobs that the rest of us “nervous Nellie’s” draft off of. But as every dog has his day, in retrospect these aggressive types are going to look like fools over the next few years as the “bean counters” take over and clean up the mess. Which they will eventually hand off once again to those with aggressive DNA when traditional economic benchmarks are in place for another expansion cycle. But as far as right now…today…don’t get fooled by a few scattered high end sales and think they are evidence of a turn around. Instead they are simply chickens still dancing even though their heads have been chopped off (ax = ending absurdly lenient lending practices). Busts of this magnitude take a long, long time (5 to 7 years???) to work out….I think. Wilbur (aka “Cliché King”)

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  4. Herb…thanks for the link. That was by far the best overview on how lending is tied together and how the banking dominos just might fall. I’m especially pleased he pointed out the growing farce of FICA scores. Yes, they too have been perverted by this lending orgy. In many cases HELOC’s artificially propped up FICO scores in the 700s when they should really be in the 500s. Ohh the humanity!! Wilbur

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  5. I was looking at the Greenberg article yesterday and there was already about 150 Comments. Now there’s 300. The Comments alone are a day of good reading.

    On 12/06/07 Mark MIller wrote:
    “When people get greedy, I get nervous. When people get nervous, I get greedy.”
    – Warren Buffett

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  6. most individuals in Mammoth are basically trustafarians who are living off of their weird step fathers money. Why else would you be living in a ski town past the age of 23 years old. No one living in a ski town has the ability to save 70k for a down payment on an inflated condo briefly priced at 330k, that is really worth 160k. If you made a bad call and run out of money, just call up step dad, that is what he is there for. Mammoth is a trust fund population. There isn’t anyone with half a brain cell in the town.

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  7. Hな人妻たちの社交場、割り切った付き合いも当然OK!欲求不満のエロ人妻たちを好みに合わせてご紹介します。即会い、幼な妻、セレブ、熟女、SM妻、秘密、以上6つのジャンルから遊んでみたい女性を選んでください

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    Reply
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    Reply
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    Reply
  11. 性欲を持て余し、欲求不満になっている女性を金銭の対価を得て、癒して差し上げるお仕事です。参加にあたり用紙、学歴等は一切問いません。高収入アルバイトに興味のある方はぜひどうぞ

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  12. 童貞を奪ってみたい女性たちは、男性にとって「初体験」という一生に一度だけの、特別なイベントを共に心に刻み込むことを至上の喜びにしているのです。そんな童貞好きな女性たちと高級チェリーで最高のSEXをしてみませんか

    Reply
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  16. なかなか彼氏、彼女が出来ない君達の深層心理を徹底解明♪みんなでモテる度チェックをやって結果交換も自由、合コンや休み時間はモテる度チェックで暇つぶし!次にモテ期が訪れる瞬間をズバリ診断しちゃいます

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  17. 出会ぃも今は¥倶楽部!オンナがオトコを買う時代になりました。当サイトでは逆援希望の女性が男性を自由に選べるシステムを採用しています。経済的に成功を収めた女性ほど金銭面は豊かですが愛に飢えているのです。いますぐTOPページからどうぞ

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  18. 今迄は野外露出がマイナスイメージと囚われがちですが、実際は開放的な気分になり有名人のヌーディストが、オープンになる事を推奨してるぐらいです。このサイトをキッカケに知り合った娘達と野外で楽しみませんか

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  19. どうしても相手がセレブだと高級感が有り、近付きにくいと思われがちですが、実際はただ欲望のままに快楽を追い求める、セレブとは掛け離れた女性が居るだけです。今こそ自分の欲望を満たすときです

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  20. 最近旦那とマンネリで全然Hしてません。正直もうかなり欲求不満です…誰か相手してくれる方いませんか?空いている時間は多いと思うので都合は合わせやすいと思います。お互い楽しめる関係になりたいな。人妻でも平気な人いたら是非相手してください☆一応18歳以上の人限定でお願いします。上はどこまででも大丈夫なんで excellent.lady@docomo.ne.jp

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  21. 当サイトでは無料でオナ動画を見ることができます。また、ライブチャット機能でリアルタイムオ○ニーを見るチャンスも高く、興奮間違いなしです。また、一人Hのお手伝いを希望される女性もあり、お手伝いいただけた方には謝礼をお支払いしております

    Reply
  22. 日本最大、だれもが知っている出会い系スタービーチがついに復活、進化を遂げた新生スタビをやってみませんか?趣味の合う理想のパートナー探しの手助け、合コンパーティー等も随時開催しています。楽しかった頃のスタビで遊んでみよう

    Reply
  23. あなたの異性からのモテ度数を診断できる、モテる度チェッカー!日頃モテモテで充実しているあなたもそうでないニートの方も隠されたモテスキルを測定して結果を活用し、今以上にモッテモテになること間違いなし

    Reply
  24. 女性のオナニーを助ける場が救援部です。ここに所属してる娘のオナニーを見て気に入ったら、実際に会ってオナニーを手伝っても良いし、エッチしても良し、これで報酬Get出来るんですから美味しいバイトですよ

    Reply
  25. 一時代を築いたスタービーチは閉鎖になりましたが、もう一度楽しい思いをしたい、もう一度出会いたいと思う有志により再度復活しました。本家以上に簡単に出会えて楽しい思いを約束します

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  27. 誰にも言えない秘密があります。実はとってもHなんです、せっかく女として生まれたからにはアブノーマルな世界に飛び込んでみたいです☆普段では考えられないプレイを思う存分楽しみ、経験したいんです♪快楽に溺れさせてくれませんか?一緒に感じ合いましょう!!都合はつくのですぐに時間を合わせられます。18歳よりも上の方がいいです!! quietness@docomo.ne.jp

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  28. 流出サイトでは、有名人から素人までの他では見れない秘蔵の動画を入手しています。何より素人が相手の場合に限り、アポを採る事も可能です。動画でお手軽に抜いて、抜き足らない場合は、女の子にハメて来て下さい

    Reply
  29. 日本最大級、だれもが知っている出会い系スタービーチがついに復活、グリーより面白い新生スタビをやってみませんか?趣味の合う理想のパートナー探し、合コンパーティーに興味がある方はぜひ無料登録してみてください。楽しかった頃のスタビで遊んでみよう

    Reply
  30. あなたのSM度を簡単診断、SM度チェッカーで隠された性癖をチェック!真面目なあの娘も夜はドS女王様、ツンデレなあの子も実はイジめて欲しい願望があるかも!?コンパや飲み会で盛り上がること間違いなしのおもしろツールでみんなと盛り上がろう

    Reply
  31. 女性には風俗がない!そんな悩みを持つセレブ女たちは、リッチセックスでお金を使い自分を満たします。金銭面では豊かですが、愛に飢えている彼女たちを癒して高額な報酬を手に入れてみませんか

    Reply
  32. 女子○生の個人情報公開!?遊び盛りの神待ち女子○生の写メ・アドレス・番号を公開中!好みの女の子を選んで直メ・直電で今すぐ待ち合わせしよう

    Reply
  33. 高級チェリーの冬は童貞卒業のシーズンです。童貞を食べたい女性達もウズウズしながら貴方との出会いを待っています。そんな女性達に童貞を捧げ、貴方もハッピーライフを送ってみませんか

    Reply
  34. 初書き込みで申し訳ないんですが、都合のいい男性探しています。不況の中でも会社が高成長してて、忙しい毎日です。お陰でプライベートが充実していなくって、溜まる一方です。財産的にも多少余裕が今のところあるのでお礼もできます。何より、この書き込みが読まれているのかちょっと怪しいですけど…。アドレス置いとくので、消されないうちにメールくれたら嬉しいです。inspiration.you@docomo.ne.jp

    Reply
  35. 結婚してから女としての喜びを失った玉の輿女性達、エリート旦那のそつのない動きには満足できるはずもなく、時間を持て余すお昼時に旦那のお金を使い、出張ホストサービスを楽しむそうでございます。今回も10万円での愛を承っております。癒しの一時をご一緒して謝礼を貰ってくださいませ

    Reply
  36. だれもが知っている日本で一番有名な出会い系スタービーチがついに復活、greeより面白い新生スタビをやってみませんか?理想のパートナー探し、合コンパーティーに興味がある方はぜひ無料登録してみてください

    Reply
  37. 当サイトは、みんなが玉の輿に乗れるかどうか診断できる性格診断のサイトです。ホントのあなたをズバリ分析しちゃいます!玉の輿度チェッカーの診断結果には、期待以上の意外な結果があるかも

    Reply
  38. 男性との甘い一時が奥様達には必要になっております。刺激のない私生活はとても辛く、ココロもカラダもストレスが堪る一方、そんな中にデリバリーホストに癒しを求めている奥様、セレブ女性は大変増えてきており、男性の方が不足状態です。女性達の癒しとなる仕事をあなた様も一度体験してみてはいかがでしょうか

    Reply
  39. 無修正動画やエロ写メが取り放題!あの有名AV女優から超カワイイ素人娘まであらゆるジャンルの激ヤバ無修正動画が無料で大量にゲット出来るのはこのサイトだけ!!

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